Another Media Favorite – The Colts . . .
. . . looks like a bunch of people got sucked in by the media . . . again.
I watched the Indianapolis Colts bumble their way into the Super Bowl and then listened to the sports people tag them as being favored to “win” the Super Bowl – even the commercials were a disappointment.
If you watched the Saints win their conference title, then you might have wondered why Peyton Manning was the big daddy mofo who was going to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
I’m an old school horse-player and I learned quickly that there is no “favorite” or “sure thing’, only winners, and winners win because on a given day there’s a horse that will soundly beat the “favorite” simply because it is the “best” horse in that race on that day. My bets were based on probability while handicapping and playing the horses.
If I was still a “betting” man, I would have put my money on the Saints – their past performances indicated that there was an 80% probability that they would win the 44th Super Bowl.
You also have to take into account “pole” position, who’s the “jock” (Breese) , and will they get a “good trip” . . . no “bumped” at the start, or “boxed-in”, and keep in mind the “pace” – is there a “rabbit” posting factions that are going to kill-off the fav (can the jock “rate” his mount).
Oh yeh, and you need to know the “trainer”, has he placed his horse in a race that the horse can win?
I remember what Bill Shoemaker said to the young Pat Valenzuela on the backstretch during a mile and a sixteenth race as Pat come up to him on the outside, Bill looked over at Pat and said “Slow down son, we got a long way to go . . .” Two field-goals in the first half, score was only 6 to 10 . . . “we still got a long way to go.”
The Colts got “bumped” hard as they came out of the gate in the second half of SB 44 and never recovered – the “bump” was the fumbled on-side kick – an on-side kick to start the second half !! Holy Crap, no one does that !! Oh, and the commentators kept saying that the place-kicker for the Saints had “never” kicked a field goal longer than 44 yards, but he kept putting the ball between the uprights – twice, at more than 44 yards, right ??
The public AND the media “experts” don’t play the “game” for money, whether it be sports or horses OR poker . . . so they go with the glitz and glamour . . . remember the “Smarty Party” fans? The Kentucky Derby is like the Super Bowl in a way, all the pretty hats and people pretending that they really like the races . . . sort of like the “Red Carpet” crapola . . .
I still have the little jockey pin souvenirs that I got at Santa Anita . . .